Week 5 NFL Picks

Alright, I’m starting this week down $300. Luckily the stock market is doing well I think. Although I havent checked in a few weeks.

Colts (-3.5) over TEXANS $250
Given the same situation in a few weeks I may pick this differently, but I’m still a believer that Peyton Manning will make Indy work again. Plus they are coming off a bye week.

Bears (-3.5) over LIONS $250

They fired Matt Millen basically acknowledging what everyone knew – they’ve had horrible management for the last 5(?) years. This is going to take some time to turn around. I don’t know if Ford Field actually counts as home field advantage.

GIANTS (-7.5) over Seahawks $250
The Giants are undefeated, coming off a bye, playing at home and they know that every game counts in the NFC East.

Patriots (-3.5) over NINERS $250
I know that that I’m supposed to take home underdogs against the spread, but this is still the Patriots. Even though they don’t have Tom Brady, even though the Dolphins killed them, this is still the (mostly) the team that went 16-0 last year. Bill Belicheck is still the coach. And the 49ers are still the team that went 5-11 last year.

Bengals (+17) over COWBOYS $150

The Bengals are horrible, but 2 weeks ago they went to overtime against the Giants in New York. Carson Palmer is back, and this is only the 5th game so it’s not like everyone in Cincinnati has thrown in the towel.

Bills (+1) over CARDS $500

Have you ever been to the Cardinals stadium? It’s like a shopping mall – it doesn’t feel real. It just makes me feel like Arizona is a soft team. Buffalo needs to keep proving itself and I don’t think they are going to let up now when they have a bye next week. Did anyone see how Arizona imploded in the first half against NY last week?

SAINTS (-3.5) over Vikings$100

The Saints can put up points quickly and the Viking can’t. I don’t see this game close with the saints at home.

Gotta admit that I’m feeling most of these games this week.

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Drunk Monkeys: The Best Internet Video Ever?

You decide.

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Week four football betting results

I’m starting this week down $400 from last week. I don’t much remember my bets – let’s see how I did. My gut tells me that I actually made money this week.

ST. LOUIS over Buffalo (-8.5) $200
Not even close, I’m down $600

Arizona over the JETS (-1) $200

This is ridiculous, I lost this bet badly. This game brings up a huge point. I have Brett Favre on my fantasy team so I was obviously psyched about the 6 touchdown game. If I was betting on this game (real money) I would have been very torn, but admittedly much more pissed about losing a quick $200. Does anyone have experience with this fantasy football vs betting situation?

By the way I’m down a quick $800.

KANSAS CITY over Denver (-9.5) $150
First win is always the toughest. I’m clawing my way back only $650 in the red.

Cleveland over CINCINNATI (-3.0) $150
2 In a row feeling good here, and the Browns get their first win. -$500 over the last 2 weeks.

CHICAGO over Phili (-3.0) $150
I just barely got through this game. It amazes me sometimes when the spread is this close. -$350

Washington over DALLAS (-10) $150
I’m feeling it, only down $200.

OAKLAND over San Diego (-7.5) $100
Oakland lost by 10 points. -$300

Alright so I made $100 this week.

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Football Betting Week 4

It’s week 4 in the NFL, but only my second week tracking football bets. If you’d like to understand why, you can read about it in my previous NFL betting post.

Last week I saved $400 by not betting on sports. Let’s see if I get any better this week. For the last round every bet was $100. This time I’ll change up the amount.

In order of confidence.

ST. LOUIS over Buffalo (-8.5) $200
I’m taking the home underdog here.

Arizona over the JETS (-1) $200
It’s a matchup of ancient QBs, I’ll take Warner because he’s got better receivers.

KANSAS CITY over Denver (-9.5) $150
This is a division game at home for KC. I think Denver is going to coast a bit after 2 intense games against powerhouses.

Cleveland over CINCINNATI (-3.0) $150
Ohio better deliver a victory for Barack Obama next month after this pitiful display on the football field.

CHICAGO over Phili (-3.0) $150
A decent defense can slow Philadelphia down, and Westbrook is already limping.

Washington over DALLAS (-10) $150
Everything is big in Texas, especially this point spread. My gut says Washington wins this game.

OAKLAND over San Diego (-7.5) $100
Until I see LT show up I’m a bit nervous about this team. How is their defense ranked 29th? I think their better than their record, but the Raiders fans will get in Philip Rivers’ head and he’ll make some mistakes.

Wow, I’m laying out $1100 on the games this week.

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First Week of Faux Football betting

So the previous post explains why I am picking games online instead of betting on them. I haven’t looked at my picks yet, but I remember that I won at least on game. Let’s assume that I bet $100 on each game.

Here are the picks, followed by results. (and apparently I forgot to publish the post – it was a draft. I published without changing anything or reading it.)

BILLS (-9.5) over Raiders
I lost the first bet here. The Bills won, but only by one. I think it was on a last second field goal. Down $100.

Dolphins over PATS (-13)
I won the first bet back in a big way. Wish I would have started Ronnie Brown on my fantasy team. I’m even.

BEARS (-3) over Bucs
Chicago lost by 3? Shit, down $100 again.

NINERS (-4) over Lions
31-13 sweet. Back to even.

COLTS over Jaguars (+5)
Ouch man. Indy lost this game. I think this was a last second field goal as well. Down $100 again. I’m not sure the chronological order of these games, but I’m sure this would not have been a relaxed Sunday.

Browns over RAVENS (-2.5)
Down $200. Fuck the Browns.

BRONCOS (-5.5) over Saints
Wow man, I am bad. Down $300 right now. I’m pissed. This probably makes Monday at work pretty shitty waiting for one last game to hopefully dig myself out.

Jets (+10) over CHARGERS “San Diego will win, but not by 10 points.”
And decent last words for the week. Down $400 in my first week of betting games.

The real bet here is how much money this blog posting will actually save me. I think I can make this back next week, I just have to bet bigger.

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How I’m saving a few thousand dollars

Last Sunday I spent about 7 hours in a sports bar watching football, drinking Guiness and eating fried food. My portion of the tab came to $100, but it could have been a lot worse. The guys sitting next to me placed a bet which sounded like a great idea to me at the time, but I decided not to do it.

In the paper, the San Diego/Denver game was a pick meaning their was no spread. My friend really liked Denver to win the game and the bet. When he called to place the bet, the bookie said the most current odds were giving SD 1 1/2 points. Usually not enough to make a difference.

Of course in this game the point and a half did make a big difference. Denver won the game by one point and my buddy lost his bet.

This occurance also saved me a lot of money. Instead of actually making bets, I’m going to pick winners on this site for a few weeks and see how I do.

Here goes. Props to Bill Simmons for the numbers and some advice. Home team in caps.

BILLS (-9.5) over Raiders
10 points is huge, but right now you can’t bet against the Bills. We have no idea how good they may be.

Dolphins over PATS (-13)
Matt Cassell is so far unproven, although I like him as a QB, and Miami isn’t as bad as they were last year. I’m not sure how the Boston crowd shows up. Same with the NE defense. Two touchdowns is too much.

BEARS (-3) over Bucs
The Bears defense can slow down TB, but I don’t think the Tampa defense can slow the Bears. I’m not sure what the number is, but I’d take the under.

NINERS (-4) over Lions
Third game – This is usually the time that the Lions throw in the towel right?

COLTS over Jaguars (+5)
I think that it takes a few games into the regular season for Peyton Manning (and LT) to get up to speed. taking it easy in the preseason doesn’t allow them to shake off the dust from the off season. Things should start falling into place.

Browns over RAVENS (-2.5)
Browns defense is better than people think and this team really needs to win to save it’s season. I know the cleveland offense is really banged up, but they should be able to ground out this division game against a weak Baltimore team.

BRONCOS (-5.5) over Saints
Denver isn’t fucking around. I think they’ll get out to a fast start and hold it this time. Of course taking them against the spread may not be the best idea for a while.

Jets (+10) over CHARGERS
San Diego will win, but not by 10 points.

I’ll update after the games.

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Best Anti-McCain Ad So Far

Finally someone makes an ad that connects the dots and doesn’t leave any wiggle room for John McCain.

McCain says that he’s about change in Washington – watch this ad.

Please help spread this video around the internet.

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Worst TV Commercial Ever: HSBC Logging

So there is a new HSBC commercial I’ve seen twice. I can’t find the video online, but if you have a link, please leave it in the comments. I can’t immagine how this commercial can possibly relate to banking, but I’m open to hear suggestions.

Here’s the summary.

They open with logging protestors being arrested. It’s not disneyland, in fact, it’s fairly dark – at least for mainstream standards. People are yelling and there are protestors being handcuffed with zip ties. As one protestor is being led away she passes a logger carrying some equipment. The protester is visibly upset.

The scene cuts to a jail cell opening and the prisner rushing out. She hurries passed the logger, who apparently bailed her out, and doesn’t aknowledge him. It turns out that they are somehow together and he is giving her a ride home on his motorcycle. She moves her hands from holding the bar behind her to hugging him for support. The narrater says something like “There’s a time to understand that we have to compromise, HSBC.”

I have no possible clue what the message is, but here are a few guesses.

  • HSBC has been helping logging companies. Please don’t withdraw your money when you find this out.
  • When you are finally ready to sell your soul, HSBC is the bank for you.
  • Even if they hate your guts, women will sleep with you if you drive a motorcycle.
  • If you’d like to sellout HSBC is there to help.

Any other ideas?

Edit:

Thanks for the comments and thanks to Marissa for finding the video. This long version is much better and I like the song, but it still makes no sense as a bank commercial, sorry.

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18 million cracks in the McCain Rhetoric

Can’t reporters and journalists relate to the base of truth when talking to and about the presidential candidates? The media needs to tell the story correctly instead of always telling both sides of the story regardless of how innacurate one side may be.

Here are some good examples of how to do that guys. Don’t be afraid to use the word “liar”.

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Some real estate research

I’ve abandoned my typepad blog. Honestly, there is no reason to pay for publishing software; WordPress is great. If anything I’ll pay for some hosting so that I can install javascript.

Anyway, I was beginning to write about a new side project – buying an investment property in the Caribbean. The blog was serving as a way to take notes, communicate with a business partner and keep an archive. This will take place here for now unless I start another blog.

For today I am just going to touch on some logistics of Nicaragua. *** BTW I am basically starting from scratch with a build up of buying a vacation house to rent out. I’ve never even been to the country. Just learned that the capital is Granada.

It seems that the only accessible airport in Nicaragua is in the city of Managua. The city which I have been advised to buy real estate is called San Juan Del Sur. Unfortunately, when I google map directions from Managua to San Juan del Sur, I get now results. Not a particularly good sign.

But the flights are cheap, and the place looks nice.

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