Last Sunday I spent about 7 hours in a sports bar watching football, drinking Guiness and eating fried food. My portion of the tab came to $100, but it could have been a lot worse. The guys sitting next to me placed a bet which sounded like a great idea to me at the time, but I decided not to do it.
In the paper, the San Diego/Denver game was a pick meaning their was no spread. My friend really liked Denver to win the game and the bet. When he called to place the bet, the bookie said the most current odds were giving SD 1 1/2 points. Usually not enough to make a difference.
Of course in this game the point and a half did make a big difference. Denver won the game by one point and my buddy lost his bet.
This occurance also saved me a lot of money. Instead of actually making bets, I’m going to pick winners on this site for a few weeks and see how I do.
Here goes. Props to Bill Simmons for the numbers and some advice. Home team in caps.
BILLS (-9.5) over Raiders
10 points is huge, but right now you can’t bet against the Bills. We have no idea how good they may be.
Dolphins over PATS (-13)
Matt Cassell is so far unproven, although I like him as a QB, and Miami isn’t as bad as they were last year. I’m not sure how the Boston crowd shows up. Same with the NE defense. Two touchdowns is too much.
BEARS (-3) over Bucs
The Bears defense can slow down TB, but I don’t think the Tampa defense can slow the Bears. I’m not sure what the number is, but I’d take the under.
NINERS (-4) over Lions
Third game – This is usually the time that the Lions throw in the towel right?
COLTS over Jaguars (+5)
I think that it takes a few games into the regular season for Peyton Manning (and LT) to get up to speed. taking it easy in the preseason doesn’t allow them to shake off the dust from the off season. Things should start falling into place.
Browns over RAVENS (-2.5)
Browns defense is better than people think and this team really needs to win to save it’s season. I know the cleveland offense is really banged up, but they should be able to ground out this division game against a weak Baltimore team.
BRONCOS (-5.5) over Saints
Denver isn’t fucking around. I think they’ll get out to a fast start and hold it this time. Of course taking them against the spread may not be the best idea for a while.
Jets (+10) over CHARGERS
San Diego will win, but not by 10 points.
I’ll update after the games.